GE2019: Poll Tracker

This page provides an overview of poll trackers from multiple sources, the polls from registered pollsters and analysis on what the polls actually mean.

Poll Trackers

DateSourceLeadConLabLibGreBrexOther
10 DecBritains Elects+10.342.833.112.52.93.15.7
11 DecBBC+10433313334
11 DecGuardian+10433313335
11 DecFinancial Times+10433313334

Updated: 11th December 2019

Latest Polls

Great Britain

DatePollsterLeadConLabSNPLibGreBrexPC
11 DecDeltapoll+104535N/A1033N/A
11 DecKantarTNS+124432N/A1333N/A
11 DecComres+54136N/A12N/AN/AN/A
11 DecPanelbase+94334N/A1134N/A
11 DecBMG+114132N/A1434N/A
11 DecOpinium+124533N/A12N/AN/AN/A
09 DecICM+64236N/A12N/A3N/A
08 DecComRes+7433641223N/A
07 DecSurvation+14453131124N/A
07 DecDeltapoll+114433N/A11N/A3N/A
06 DecBMG+9413231444N/A
06 DecYouGov+104333N/A1333N/A
06 DecOpinium+15463141323N/A
06 DecPanelbase+94334N/A1323N/A
05 DecComres+8413341223N/A
05 DecComres+64236N/A1124N/A
04 DecIpsos Mori+12443241332N/A

Updated: 11th December 2019 (Polls from the last 7 days)

Scotland

DatePollsterLeadSNPConLabLibGreBrex
06 DecPanelbase+1039292110N/AN/A
03 DecYouGov+16442815121N/A
25 NovIpsos Mori+18442616112N/A
04 NovPanelbase+1240282011N/AN/A
25 OctYouGov+204222121346

Updated: 11th December 2019 (Last 5 polls)

Wales

DatePollsterLeadLabConPCLibGreBrex
09 DecYouGov+3403710615
25 NovYouGov+6383211929
4 NovYouGov+129281212315
14 OctYouGov+425291216N/A14

Updated: 11th December 2019 (Last 2 months)

Election Models

YouGov Predictive MRP Model – Tory Majority of 26

PartySeats (Predicted)Change (w 2017)
Conservative339+21
Labour231-31
SNP41+6
Liberal Democrats15+3
Plaid Cymru4+/-
Green1+/-

Source: YouGov MRP model, 10th December

You can view YouGov Seat by Seat projections here.

Analysis

11th December 2019

Callum Williams’ Analysis

The final polls of the election have now been released and they suggest a narrow Tory majority. The last polls show a Tory lead of between 5 and 12 points with YouGov’s last MRP showing a Tory majority of 26.

However, a standard polling error could lead to a hung parliament and a Labour minority government or a Tory landslide. The next 24 hours will be a nail-biting and tense time for Tory strategists as Johnson’s future is still not certain. Whereas, Labour activists will go out tomorrow with some hope of kicking Johnson out of No. 10. However, we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out the electorate’s verdict.

2nd December 2019

Callum Williams’ Analysis

With 11 days until polling day, Labour is gaining momentum and the Tories have stalled. The Tories have remained constant at around 42% probably their maximum support as they are unlikely to pick up any more Labour or remain voters. The trend shows that Labour’s gains are coming at the expense of the smaller parties mainly the Liberal Democrats.

Johnson is still able to win a majority however it is not certain. Labour’s hope to deny Johnson a majority and get Corbyn into No. 10 relies on two factors. Firstly, their ability to consolidate their vote in the north to prevent the Tories gaining seats. Secondly, their ability to persuade Liberal Democrat and Green voters to vote tactically in Tory-Labour marginals. However, ultimately only one poll matters – the general election.

28th November 2019

Read Isaac Browning’s Analysis on the YouGov MRP here.

25th November 2019

Callum Williams’ Analysis

The trend over the past week shows an increase in support for both main parties at the expense of the smaller parties, with the Conservatives increasing their lead slightly. However, the variability in the poll is significant with one poll giving the Tories a 7 point lead and another a 19 point lead. It is also worth noting that these polls put Labour in a similar position to the day before the 2017 General Election and as with most recent polling, they aren’t great at predicting the electorate’s behaviour.

The interesting poll is the MRP prediction, the same model that predicted a hung parliament at the last election, which has predicted a Conservative majority. This will provide some comfort to Johnson and shows that he has a good chance of winning a majority. YouGov plans to release their MRP on Wednesday which, should give a better insight into the possible election outcome. However, with over a fortnight until polling day, Johnson would be foolish to start celebrating now.

18th November 2019

Callum Williams’ Analysis

The trend over the last week shows an increase in support for the Conservatives. This could be partly due to pollsters adapting their methodologies in response to Brexit Party candidates standing down in Tory-held seats. Although, this means Johnson will require more support nationally to gain Labour seats as gaining votes in seats he already holds doesn’t help him under First Past the Post.

As expected, the smaller parties are starting to lose support in favour of the two larger parties. The Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party are both seeing their vote share decrease as voters move towards Labour and the Conservatives, giving them both a small boost.

However, this election will depend on how different regions vote, so the indication that national polls give aren’t very reliable. The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

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