UK Politics

General Election 2017: Can Corbyn Win?

Written by Callum Williams

After years of pseudo-left Blair and Brown, Jeremy Corbyn is an anti-establishment, left-wing Labour leader, a politician who has sat on the back benches for four decades and is notorious for defying the party whips, notably during the Iraq War.

So, can he do it? Can he win? As recently as May 18, it looked impossible: Labour were polling at 24 points behind the Tories.

Image result for yougov poll april 18th

YouGov Poll April 18-19 2017

But recently a new poll showed that lead slashed by 20 points. Now there is only a 5 point difference between the two parties. With the election a week away, Corbyn is in with a fighting chance.

YouGov/Times Poll May 24-25th 2017

What are Corbyn’s chances?

Before voter registration closed, a surge in registration of young voters occurred. This is good news for labour as young people are generally more liberal and left-wing and these votes could easily swing the election in Labour’s favour. Labour are also probably underestimated in the polls because of ‘shy voters’, a phenomenon seen with Brexit and Trump, when people are too scared or embarrassed to admit they are voting for a certain person or cause. In this election the ‘shy voters’ will almost certainly be Corbyn voters, as he has been unfairly portrayed and villianised by the media and the establishment because he doesn’t wear a tie, he has a beard and he has the audacity to suggest that wars lead to terrorism and that a peaceful solution may be necessary. Terrible, isn’t it?

May fatigue?

Theresa May – an establishment female candidate who thinks she is certain to win because the other option is someone ‘no-one’ likes. Ever heard a similar story? Remember what happened next? The over-confident establishment female candidate lost because people hate the establishment, they are sick of it. We saw that in Britain with Brexit, that people don’t like the establishment and Corbyn is anti-establishment whereas May represents the establishment evangelically. Trump? Brexit? No-one expected them but they happened because people want real change and May offers no change. Corbyn? He offers radical change which is why the establishment hate him because he rocks the stable establishment boat which promises mutual power to all who are aboard.

Defying the odds

Still not convinced? Corbyn is a man of defying the odds. In the leadership election he was given odds of 200/1 to win and he won with a decisive majority, not once, but twice. He has cut the lead by 20 points, he has constantly defied the odds and he promises real-change not the old status-quo establishment policies.

When you wake up on 9th June, you will be in for another political shock, the third one in a year. Jeremy Corbyn will be the next PM. This election has been a suicide note created by the Tories. They called this election because they thought they would win a huge majority but if the election had been on 26th May, the Tory majority would have been cut to two seats. By June 9t,h Jeremy Corbyn will almost certainly be the next prime minster and the Tories will have made their second detrimental mistake of this parliamentary term.

About the author

Callum Williams

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